Thesis/Capstone
Publication Date
Authored by
Sarah Roman, Wirinratch Kirirak
Abstract

The U.S. full dry-van truckload (FTL) industry serves as a primary channel through which goods move across the country, forming the essential backbone for all product categories and commodity groups. Following the Motor Carrier Act of 1980, the truckload industry was deregulated and became increasingly influenced by market dynamics. Since 2012, three distinct market cycles have been observed, each initiated by a significant shock or catalyst. These include the implementation of new Hours of Service regulations in 2013, the introduction of Electronic Logging Device (ELD) mandates in 2016, and the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. While practitioners of the trucking industry have long attempted to predict these cycles, an industry-driven definition and standardized way of predicting upcoming cycles has yet to be written. This research first defines an industry-driven, four-phase definition of the truckload market cycle using insights from expert interviews and a widespread survey. Driven by these insights, this study uses time-series econometric model which is Vector Autoregression (VAR) to predict the upcoming two years of spot and contract rates based on independent variables. In conclusion, our findings identify the key variables that most significantly influence truckload market cycle projections, establish the optimal lag structure, and provide forecasts in both the short-term and long-term.

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