Humanitarian Assistance for Markets in Conflict: a System Dynamics Approach

Humanitarian organizations play a crucial role in providing aid to the victims of disasters – whether natural or man-made. One of the leading organizations is the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC), which saves lives and alleviates the suffering of those affected by armed conflicts. The relief action to be taken for a conflict-stricken area is assessed using a market analysis method which helps ICRC in understanding the overall condition and behavior of the market, to what extent it could support the beneficiaries and whether support to market actors is required and in what form. ICRC wants to enhance this market analysis method by adding dynamic interactions between market actors and how changes in the market environment, planned and unplanned, may help or hinder market functionality. This will help ICRC in choosing a suitable response action for a type of market actor based on how it will affect other actors in the market. Our capstone project uses system dynamics method to map the interactions between market actors. The system dynamics model we developed can simulate market conditions under different scenarios of disruptions or humanitarian interventions. The usage of this model for the market analysis process will strengthen the involvement of the supply chain team in assisting the program team to collectively decide on the best response.