I recently wrote a column on Collaborative Planning, Forecasting, and Replenishment (CPFR) for a special CPFR issue of the Journal of Business Forecasting (Winter 2010-2011). In writing the piece, I came to realize the profound effect that the CPFR phenomena has had on my career. This column reflects many of the thoughts I expressed in that JBF column.
I got on what eventually turned out to be the CPFR bandwagon just as it was starting to roll. Back in the 1990s, there was supply chain industry interest in Efficient Consumer Response (ECR). Essentially, ECR was a concept whereby manufacturers and retailers might drastically reduce inventories, costs, and waste in consumer product goods supply chains by sharing information. There was a lot of excitement about the potential of ECR, though for a variety of reasons, that potential was never realized.
But the initial excitement generated over ECR did spark an interest in the broader notion of supplier-customer “collaboration”, which eventually led to the development of CPFR as an enabling approach. This innovative approach was offered as a panacea for integrating supply chains to gain huge benefits in inventory reductions and increased sales. Like most technology innovations, CPFR followed the Gartner “Hype Cycle.” That is, early on after a trigger, it experienced a period of inflated expectations, then a period of trough of disillusionment, and eventually enlightenment—leading to its current period of productivity.