Supply Chain Frontiers issue #39
The first Future Freight Flows (FFF) Workshop took place on November 4, 2010, at the headquarters of the Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission (DVRPC), in Philadelphia, PA. The event was a resounding success. The project team will now take the workshop on the road in 2011 with events in Minneapolis, MN, (February 11) and Seattle, WA, (March 8 and 9); as well as Los Angeles or San Diego in California; Atlanta, GA; and Washington, D.C.
It is difficult for shippers and carriers to plan freight transportation projects effectively, says MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics (MIT CTL) Executive Director, Dr. Chris Caplice, head of the FFF project, who facilitated one of the breakout sessions in Philadelphia. But government planners have the hardest job of all, given that large infrastructure projects usually take decades to complete, must overcome political and social obstacles, and are hampered by departmental silos and shrinking budgets.
The FFF project team aims to help planners by providing better ways to anticipate the national and global trends that drive the demand for freight, and to build this information into the planning process. The researchers have created a unique scenario-planning exercise where stakeholders envision freight operations in four fictional worlds, described below.
- Global Marketplace. A highly competitive world where there is vigorous trade between countries and an overriding emphasis on market-based solutions.
- Naftastique! Regional trading blocs dominate world trade centered on China, Europe, South America, and the United States.
- One World Order. A global scarcity of resources has forced nations to use regulation to ensure that trade is fair and sustainable.
- Millions of Markets. The United States has become self-reliant through technology breakthroughs that fuel soaring trade and affluence.
The scenario-planning method was developed from MIT CTL’s Supply Chain 2020 research initiative led by Dr. Mahender Singh, a facilitator at the DVRPC workshop. The other facilitators were Roberto Perez-Franco, Shardul Phadnis, and Miguel Sanchez from MIT CTL.
Teams of representatives from freight organizations such as carriers, intermediaries, government agencies, ports, and shippers are assigned one of the four worlds and given a number of transportation projects to vote on. There were eight of these “investment bundles” in the first workshop based on logical groupings of freight transportation centers and corridors. Each bundle can contain more than one mode and facilities owned by both private and public organizations.
The participants must “suspend their disbelief” in these investment projects for the purposes of the exercise. And they are required to imagine themselves as citizens of the future; the reference date for the Philadelphia workshop was November 2, 2037. Each stakeholder is expected to decide which projects to allocate money to and which ones to veto based on the business, political, and social environment in which they find themselves. They are encouraged to discuss the options with their peers. The workshop ends with a summary of the investment choices and the rationale behind each decision.
“Our goal is to create a handful of plausible alternative futures that run counter to conventional wisdom,” explains Caplice. By exploring these scenarios, the participants gain a much broader appreciation of the demands that influence freight transportation, and develop more flexible approaches to planning. “The traditional approach where projects are based on point forecasts is deeply flawed,” says Caplice. “Planners do not know what will happen 30 years from now, but they can be better prepared for the changes that will shape future freight networks.”
For more information on the Future Freight Flows project and the program of workshops, contact Dr. Chris Caplice, caplice@mit.edu