This project evaluates the potential of using macroeconomic indicators to forecast consumer packaged goods demand for three emerging markets in Asia. Twenty-seven models were constructed using stepwise multiple linear regression analysis for the three countries and their product segments. Based on our findings, we determined which combination of macroeconomic indicators and time lags produced the models with the highest explanatory power for shipments, market share by volume, and retail sales. Our results indicate that the consumer price index has the most influence on consumption for each country. In addition, a preliminary testing of our models on a limited data set indicated forecasting errors of less than 7.25% error.
Authors: Jonathan Mau and Bryan McFadden
Advisor: Dr. Basak Kalkanci