For over 12 years, I have been affiliated with the Institute of Business Forecasting & Planning, (IBF—recently appended with “& Planning” to its name to reflect its focus on the Sales and Operations Planning (S&OP) process.) I sit on its advisory board and have participated in its events, write a column in the Journal of Business Forecasting, and conduct introductory tutorials.
Some time back, IBF started a professional certification program for business forecasters and an annual event for forecasting and planning management. During the last annual event, I suddenly realized that the IBF has helped to elevate business forecasting into a profession, one with a career. Previously, forecasters used to view their job as a stepping stone to other areas within a company. The IBF event had mid-career forecasting and planning managers enthusiastically discussing their roles, especially those being played during these tough economic times when demand uncertainty has risen dramatically. Forecasting jobs are available as companies seek to get a good handle on future demand to survive and thrive as the economy rebounds. The demand for forecasting and planning software products and consulting services is also robust.
Forecasting professionals, however, often get little respect. To start off my “Designing a Business Forecasting Process” tutorials, I show a cartoon with the caption: “Darn it, Fenster, I don’t care if you ARE dyslexic. Stop referring to the demand planner as ‘That Damned Planner’.” I use it to point out that forecasting is really a no-win job. If forecasts are too low, others are happy that they “beat the numbers”; while if too high others are not happy because “the forecasters were too optimistic.” Lastly, should by some remote chance the forecast be perfect, others will happily say they “made their numbers.”
Why take a job in which you virtually can’t win? My advice to forecasters is to not make forecast accuracy their primary mission because business environments are fraught with ever-changing demand uncertainty and forecast errors. Instead, the mission should be to consistently produce the best forecasts possible based only on facts and clearly articulated assumptions—professionally and with no emotion. This gives forecasters the credibility needed to convince others to use the forecasts to plan their own operations, so that everyone is on-board to meet the same corporate goals—per “one-number” planning.
As a forecaster I was lucky to have been extremely accurate during my first year. For the next four years my credibility reached the point that senior executives looked at me as the only non-biased person who would give them the real story on future demand. I’ve known successful forecasters that were viewed by their executive management in a similar way. Their success was based on sticking to the facts, not dumb luck.