Signs of the Times

Supply Chain Frontiers issue #19. Read all articles in this issue. 

Identifying the events and trends that will shape future supply chain strategy sounds like a job best left to futurists and other business gurus, but these nuggets of knowledge can be mined by anyone.  All it takes is a free-thinking attitude, some industry expertise, and a medium for exchanging ideas. The first two can be supplied by the individual; the third, a medium, is now available in the shape of MIT’s Center for Transportation & Logistics new Supply Chain 2020 (SC2020) Sensor Watch blog.

“All we are trying to do is to broaden the mental outlook of the supply chain community,” said CTL Research Associate Mahender Singh. It is a relatively modest goal but the payback for supply chain managers and their companies can be enormous: the ability to anticipate developments that translate into sustainable competitive advantage.   The SC2020 team calls these early indicators of change “sensors in the ground”. The sensors are embedded in everyday news stories and articles, and the blog presents a sample of these and encourages visitors to consider the implications and post their observations on the site. Participants learn from each other in an enjoyable setting, and, crucially, are encouraged to think outside the boundaries that define their regular work routines.   “People start to drop their guard and the process triggers creative thoughts,” explained Singh. Eventually these thoughts carve out new mental pathways that enable individuals to think laterally about the events that will ultimately have a profound influence on the way organizations do business. In other words, they “suspend their belief” in tried and tested ways of doing things, and become more open to original ideas, Singh said.    Detecting and defining these sensors is part of a broader SC2020 research effort to develop scenarios for further analysis.  A ’scenario’ is a vision of a possible future state of the world and the business environment. The SC2020 Scenario Planning research group has prepared three global scenarios, and these are described on the Sensors Watch blog. For those interested in the work, CTL is offering a Scenario Planning Workshop on the MIT campus on March 27 – 28, 2007.    The more traditional approach to brainstorming is to organize meetings that are choreographed by an outside expert or senior executive, but as Singh pointed out, “that’s not how creativity comes to you.” Moreover, the controlling mechanisms that are part of daily life – professional training programs or parental responsibilities, for instance – can stifle free thought, he believes.   If the link to successful supply chain strategizing seems tenuous, look at the companies that have become leading innovators. Singh pointed to Amazon.com which leveraged the arrival of online commerce at a time when conventional book retailers were still steeped in established business models. Apple has reinvented itself with products such as the iPod and iTunes by looking outside the markets that defined it.  Similarly Netflix, a relative newcomer to the movie rental business, has forced Blockbuster, the industry leader, to change its business model and follow Netflix.  Even Toyota, which has become synonymous with carefully defined, repeatable processes, puts much emphasis on forums where workers share fresh ideas and insights about business practices to continuously update the company’s processes. “Markets will change, it is up to you to leverage those changes,” Singh said.   Read the SC2020 blog. The SC2020 Project is a multi-year research effort to identify and analyze the factors that are critical to the success of future supply chains. For more information on the project, and the Scenario Planning Workshop this March, contact Mahender Singh.