Supply chain disruptions increasingly originate far upstream, yet most firms maintain visibility only into their direct, tier-1 supplier base. This informational gap creates systematic blind spots in resilience planning: firms allocate risk mitigation budgets based on incomplete signals, underestimating the true cascade exposure of their supplier portfolios. This study quantifies the economic value of expanding supply chain network visibility beyond tier-1 for four focal companies – Mondelez International and Danone (Consumer Packaged Goods) and NVIDIA and Intel (Semiconductor) – representing two distinct industries. We develop a six-phase simulation framework combining Bayesian Noisy-OR Monte Carlo. The model maps multi-tier supplier networks, scores country-level risk using three composite indices, computes arc-level fragility, and propagates cascading disruption probabilities across three visibility scenarios: Blind (S1, tier-1 only), Partial (S2, tier-1 + tier-2), and Full (S3, three tiers). The model then identifies the minimum expected-cost resilience strategy for each tier-1 supplier across a strategy set comprising six inventory and sourcing options, and computes the Value of Information (VoI) as the percentage reduction in expected disruption cost achieved by each incremental visibility upgrade. Results show a strong risk-discovery effect: moving from S1 to S3 increases cascade-adjusted failure probabilities by 37–51 percentage points across all firms. This shifts optimal strategies from reactive expediting under S1 to proactive buffering under S2/S3, demonstrating that visibility creates value by enabling better decisions. For CPG firms, tier-2 visibility delivers the highest returns (2.2–2.7% VoI, or $4.1M–$5.0M annually) at low-to-moderate safety stock, while tier-3 becomes material only at high inventory positions (up to $16.7M–$31.4M at 40% safety stock). In semiconductors, outcomes depend jointly on network topology and inventory position: NVIDIA captures roughly $12M–$18M annually at tier-2 across most safety stock levels but exhibits a buffer-driven inversion at 40% safety stock where tier-3 visibility unlocks an additional ~$31M; Intel's dispersed network produces zero VoI at tier-2 and the largest absolute VoI in the study at tier-3, ranging from $46M (at 40% safety stock) to $142M (at 10–20% safety stock).
