This paper examines the relationship between U.S. import tariff policy and freight volumes at ports of entry, with implications for supply chain real estate (SCRE) investment strategy. Using a partial equilibrium simulation model grounded in the Armington framework, which treats imports from different countries as imperfect substitutes, we analyze how tariff-driven price changes redistribute import market share across sourcing countries and redirect cargo flows through U.S. ports. As global sourcing patterns shift away from China toward lower-cost alternatives including Vietnam, India, and Mexico, the geographic distribution of port activity is changing in ways that create both risk and opportunity for SCRE investors. The model is calibrated using U.S. Census trade data and applied to a practical investment context: a private equity firm managing a $13.1 billion portfolio of high-flow-through logistics properties. These findings inform a data-driven framework for assessing port-level freight exposure and guiding capital allocation decisions amid ongoing trade policy uncertainty. This research also contributes to the broader literature on how trade policy transmits through logistics infrastructure, offering a replicable methodology for practitioners operating in tariff-sensitive real estate markets.
